Geopolitics in 2021 – Jorge Lopez Cataño

This Article corresponds to the “Global Business Strategies” course as part of the Rochat MBA program and was submitted by the student Jorge Lopez Cataño.

Working on the two main scenarios that I see happening in 2021 after Covid.

Scenario 1: Humanity together fighting for the biggest benefit. As time pass by, we would see how the major economies make the shift to sustainability. I see this on first hand, I have now a sustainable house that have a different preferent mortgage rate than one with a below class. As well I the changes of some cities and countries to emission free zones. The industry of the bikes and electric vehicle is for sure shifting as well. We slowly move out from the dependency on oil and its derivatives. Big oil companies are now moving to renewable resources seeing this a new business where they change the full perspective of what they do into something more sustainable. “Now, BP, one of the world’s largest oil and gas companies, is aiming to ride the waves of disruption instead of being crushed under them.”¹

Another main focus that would change is the jobs that we perform and how we would continue to strength the relation of trade within countries. Globalization as an integration of countries is stopping to certain degree, however trade would continue. Here in Europe, I see how we want to keep moving and trading within and outside of the region. “One in seven jobs in Europe is supported by export and during the next decade 85 percent of global trade will take place outside the EU. It means for the EU to continue to grow we need to connect to global growth and we need open trade and investment.”²

I see as well this happening with other countries that use to be closed for the foreigners and now, they are trying to change, I have some friends in Saudi Arabia and they are telling me that since 2019 the country is opening to new incomes like tourism and trading.³

I would like to close the first scenario of the cleaner, leaner and more collaborative scenario after the Covid where we see a transition geopolitically as neighbors and greener economies.

Lasy but not least our shift to a more technological world is a way with no return. More tech jobs and as well we as users would see a major shift on this. “

We are entering the greatest technological transition in history. It is time to abandon skepticism and biased objections, and to move in one direction only. At all levels: as consumers, as investors, as voters. There has never been a challenge so crucial and so existential. Let’s hope that 2020, for all that was wrong with it, proved the turning point in meeting that challenge.⁵

The second scenario: The frictions and fights.

After using the vaccine as a political weapon, the poor countries are always the ones that are more affected, we would see how they would endorse the best powerful economy and for sure move their decisions two those kind of government policies. Supporting with votes in the UN assembly and other ways that they could influence the country decisions.

The deployment of COVID-19 vaccines brings hope that the onslaught of the virus will soon cease, but the unsettled world within which the virus emerged remains. ⁴

“The problem is that global cooperation is not a luxury; it is the necessary ingredient for recovery today and resiliency tomorrow. Our interconnected public-health landscapes, globalized economy and single planetary environment can only be at their strongest when stakeholders work with, not against, one another.”

The collaboration between Russia and China could be consider as threat but also it is a needed balance of powers, I see the silk road as one of the major projects of this decade where China could move all their products to the west without the need of using boats and ships.

The military partnership is a risk but is more the result of an aggressive agenda by the US to the east. “As a way to counterbalance a newly unified West under the Biden administration, China and Russia are steadily closing ranks. What was once a relatively cold relationship between Beijing and Moscow is now gradually evolving into a tacit, yet firm, geo-political and military cooperation.”⁶ The ASEAN collaboration is also getting stronger but at the end what we are living is a new cold war. Geopolitics after Covid-19: US-China cold war, fragmented EU and GCC. US-China friction will shift to a fuller Cold War, dividing the world into two camps instead of renewing globalization⁷