Geopolitics in 2020 – John Choi

Geopolitics for 2020 and their impact for Global Business: 2 scenarios.

ONE – MICRO: The Four and the Culture War and How it Effects Geopolitics

GAFA or “The Four” have commonly been called the companies with the most influence over modern society at a global scale. They are all American-based and look indomitable. Google’s YouTube is on track to have more viewing time than traditional TV as one Forbes article suggest blatantly that “Traditional TV is dead, and it’s hard to argue otherwise.” Facebook’s Instagram is the new Facebook. What is viral is now intermixed with advertisement and what was advertisement can become what is viral. More people have Amazon Prime than go to Church in America and finally Apple is just that Apple. These Four companies along with Microsoft have greater GDPs than many countries and are conduits for the cultural growth of many nations. What is trending in the US becomes global and what is viral in Vietnam is just that viral in the US. We are sharing information and data or datums at a faster rate than ever and they become, for better or worse, the conduits for our culture, or the societal habits of a locus, city, nation or world.

Against this interchange much of China’s social media (and internet for that matter) has been restricted to a few Chinese companies such as Tencent and Alibaba. The same occurs but within one nation (and within its subsidiaries, i.e. Vietnam, Laos, Iran, and North Korea). There is no doubt that we are better a global world as opposed to a divided one but a thought about what drives culture and ultimately drives geopolitics.

To have so much influence spread out over such a few media (i.e. The Four and Alibaba and Tencent) is tantamount to considering that the local library is the holder of all truths. A century ago the Universities were the keepers of truths (or untruths) and the fastest media for spreading them. Each University held its brand and traditions and influenced in different ways. Today we call it “data”. Data is as valuable as it is invaluable, a completely neutral term with no depth of its being either “true” or “false”. We are fed data by the fistfuls and now we are threatened by not knowing whether it is true or not (think to the MAGA boy from Covington Catholic) where one angle tells one story and the other a very different one. We are taught to feel and think and judge each event and data independent of their truth and when that truth is made apparent we sheepishly backtrack or defend our useless positions.

The danger of having so much influence bound in so few influencers (The Four, etcetera) is that we limit our own access to data. As Google’s first algorithms suggested that what is searched for and popular is more useful we are drawn to data that are independent of whether or not they are true, false, or to be determined.

The beauty and the opportunity of having so much influence bound in so few influencers is that they can be a conduit towards truth. Perhaps Google’s second algorithm will not point to the most searched articles, videos, i.e. “content” but rather the most true data and content which is not always correlative to to the most searched. Finally, through that first supply of data these influencers and influence the masses to knowthe truth and act upon it to then go and influence more influencers (e.g. elected officials) and change culture and thus change history.

TWO – Macro: The US, Russia, China and the Case of Venezuela

Chavez was the Bad Guy and later it was Maduro. No one argues that the hegemonous dictatorships are evil, and therefore lack serious good. Here’s what happened just last week:

1) The US recognized an interim President (Guiado) as legal and true president of Venezuela, a leader of a National Assembly that had been elected by the People of Venezuela. It also threatened that if anything happened to Venezuelans that the present Regime would be held accountable.

2) Russia immediately retaliated by supporting Maduro (Bad Guy) and creating a countermeasure to the countermeasure (US) threatening the US of taking on Maduro. Russia does not have the military long-arm (supply-chain) to commit to a war in Venezuela…yet Venezuela just now attempted to supply Russia with 1B in Gold for “safe-keeping”. We know that Russia only took up this position to counter the US, not to support Venezuela.

3) China stands still. This has been the case for the past 50 years. It stands still and awaits opportunistically for the right moment to insert itself into the chaos at its own timing.

At this point with main-stream media not available in Venezuela (and North Korea among other countries) Venezuela’s Social Media becomes the conduit by which data is shared with the rest of the world. If The Four, among other influencers can provide the necessary support to these people I believe great good and the not-so-arbitrary formation of conscience will abound. One that is bound by the Truth.